COVID-19 May Update
With one-third of world's population still under lockdown and countries trying to manage the Coronavirus health emergency as efficiently and effectively as possible, taking a cruise in the Mediterranean or an escorted tour through Europe won't be happening soon. Europe remains at the epicenter of the COVID19 pandemic which knows neither borders or nationalities. A very disappointing truth as we approach long-awaited, well-planned summer vacations.
According to the WTO (World Tourism Organization) global tourist traffic is expected to drop between 20-30 percent in 2020. The OECD (Organization for European Cooperation and Development) is projecting a 45-70% decline in the tourism economy depending on the length of the health crisis and pace of recovery in tourism activities. They estimate losses of between 275 and 400 BILLION Euros for the travel industry worldwide. That is devastating for an industry that accounts for more than 10% of global gross domestic product (GDP) and employs some 320 million people worldwide. Per the World Travel and Tourism Council, the tourism industry in Europe employs 22.6 million people (11.2% of EU employment) and accounts for roughly 9.5% of Europe’s economy and even higher in two countries hit hardest by the pandemic - 14% in Spain and 13% in Italy.
Per the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, over 1.1 million cases of COVID19 have been reported in the EU and the UK and 129,150 deaths reported through the end of April. Spain has the highest number of reported cases/deaths (212,917/24,275), followed by Italy (203,591/27,682) and the UK (165,221/26,097). Some popular tourist destinations like Greece (2,576/139) and Croatia (2,062/67) have not been as significantly impacted. Not surprisingly, given these statistics, it is unclear when EU ministers will agree on a coordinated plan for opening their borders for tourists. First, individual member states would have to lift domestic travel restrictions to allow travel to flow freely within countries. Then, travel between neighboring states would have to become possible, and finally intra-European air and rail traffic would need to restart. The need for caution and step-by-step reopening plans are what the various countries agree upon.
While there’s consensus that societies should reopen segment-by-segment, governments cannot agree on the how's and when's. Each country will make its own decision regarding domestic travel while the EU regulations on allowing free movement of people between borders will depend on the growth rate of COVID19 all around the world. There are doubts that the southern Mediterranean destinations will be able to convince northern Europeans worried about their finances and catching the virus to come south this summer. Ursula Von Der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, warned against booking summer vacations, urging people to hold off their travel plans in Europe as ‘no one can make reliable forecasts for July and August.’ Her comments came days after French President Emmanuel Macron suggested that the EU stayed closed until September at least while saying French borders would have strict controls until October 30. The World Health Organization (WHO) has raised concerns about several EU countries highly affected by the Coronavirus (Spain, Italy, UK), lifting their restrictions too soon, leading to a possible deadly resurgence of the infection. The head of the WHO General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that decision of lifting restrictions should be made when the transmission process could be successfully controlled and when there could be sufficient public health and medical services available.
For now, all nonessential travel to the EU is blocked until May 15th, however, further extensions are expected. The ‘phase two’ of European countries reopening will include obligatory face masks, social distancing, and a gradual reopening of shops. Major summer and fall concerts, festivals and sports events in Europe have been postponed (French Open, Tour de France, Glyndebourne Festival) or cancelled (Wimbledon, Edinburgh International Festival and Military Tattoo, Glastonbury Music Festival, Oktoberfest). Airline companies still hope to operate during summer, their peak season, by taking appropriate social distancing measures such as barring the use of middle seats and monitoring the body temperature of the passengers before allowing them to fly. More prominent companies such as Emirates introduced rapid blood tests for Covid-19, conducting on-site antibody tests to passengers before boarding the plane. And every airline, hotel and tour operator will be focused on applying new rigor and processes towards achieving the highest standards of cleanliness and sanitation.
Given the current state of the pandemic, it seems unlikely we will see a rebound in leisure travel to Europe this summer. It is possible that Europeans may be able to travel regionally and if progress continues to be made on containment and reducing the number of new infections it is possible that we may see some recovery in the fall. Nevertheless, to approach a new level of ‘normal’ as it pertains to leisure travel it is highly likely we will have to wait for a vaccine.