2020/2021 Travel Outlook

TRAVEL OUTLOOK FOR THE BALANCE OF THE YEAR AND 2021 IN LIGHT OF THE COVID-19 GLOBAL PANDEMIC

To give you an idea of the current state of affairs, bookings at VIAKU are down by over 95% for the year and off 75% for the first quarter of 2021. Keeping in mind - entire countries have been ordered to stay at home, airlines are going bankrupt, tour operators are laying off massive numbers of workers, and hotels have turned into temporary refuges for COVID19 patients as well as health care providers. When things do start to return to “normal” travel, especially international travel, will look very different.

In the short term I believe the focus will be on domestic, non-urban travel that is easily accessible by car/train and does not involve accommodations in “mass” resorts. I project a significant increase in domestic family vacations that involve travel to “wide open spaces” featuring luxury home rentals, boutique hotels and resorts, glamping, private and small group travel. “Hot” destinations will include states such as Montana, Idaho, Wyoming and Utah that feature wide open spaces, national parks and many accommodation options. US beach and coastal towns with home rental options – think Cape Cod, Bar Harbor, Charleston, Savannah, San Diego will also be VERY busy. Hawaii will “take off” once people are comfortable flying again. If airlines can figure out some way to classify passengers as healthy (pre-check in health screenings) and implement onboard health and safety measures (air quality and circulation, cleaning and in-flight protocols), limited air travel may resume by year end.

I think overseas travel to traditionally popular destinations in Western Europe will not be an option for most travelers until the 2nd half of 2021. The first overseas leisure destinations to pick up will be those where the virus has been well managed (or not as prevalent) and there are strong health care systems in place (New Zealand, Australia, Scandinavia, Iceland, South Africa). Travel to Japan for the 2020 Olympics (now in 2021) will likely be lighter than originally forecasted. That being said, if airlines begin opening overseas routes with attractive airfares, travel restrictions ease more quickly than anticipated due to the availability of testing/vaccine etc… international travel may rebound more quickly.

I’m counseling clients that now is the time to plan so you can get the exact trip that you want when you’re ready to travel. You have time to budget for it, and the availability is there as well. Many tour operators and travel providers are offering flexible travel arrangements for future travel as well.

HERE ARE THE TOP CHANGES I SEE COMING FOR TRAVELERS

Increased focus on Health and Safety

Generally, I don’t think clients will feel comfortable traveling overseas until their health and safety can be assured. I also think overseas countries won’t admit foreign travelers for much the same reason, fearing the risk of outside infection. This may mean travelers will hold off on traveling again until standardized testing for the virus and a readily accessible vaccine are available which I think is at least 18-24 months out. When national lockdowns in Europe end it is highly likely that countries will implement health screens at reinstated border crossings and immigration controls. Some countries may insist travelers have a certificate of immunity stating you’ve recovered from the virus or that you’ve been vaccinated (once a vaccine becomes available) before issuing a newly implemented health and safety visa.

Purpose-based Travel

Certainly in the short-term, travel will become more defined by purpose. Countries will likely open their borders slowly, starting with essential travel. This may mean temporary visas and more documentation required for travel. In the short term leisure travel may be negatively impacted unless tourism is deemed “essential” to a nation’s economy. This will certainly extend to business travel. Now that we have been working relatively effectively from home, via ZOOM, GoToMeeting etc…companies may no longer see the same levels of need for business travel. Any business travel will need to be strictly validated as an economic activity, with companies tightening the numbers of employees who travel for them and the reasons for such travel.

Seasonality will be health and weather driven

As infection rates wax and wane due to seasonality, governments will need to turn lock down measures on and off in order to keep demands on healthcare systems at a manageable level. Just as there are high and low seasons based on weather conditions, there will be seasonality based on influenza and virus seasonality. This means there will be windows of opportunity to travel that may last only weeks or even days. Even as airlines get airborne again, initial route and seat availability will be much more limited than in the past and we will certainly see pricing that reflects this during those windows. Will there be travel bargains? Possibly in the short term to stimulate demand, but with all the revenue the airlines/hotels/tour operators have lost this year don’t anticipate those low prices to linger.

Re-opening and recovery will vary widely

We’re already seeing that MANY factors influence this pandemic. Strictness and timing of lock down measures, robustness of healthcare systems, population density and many other factors are all at work. Some countries and regions will recover before others. But exactly which countries, when, where and how is unknown. For example, Italy is ahead of other European countries on the depth and curve of the outbreak. This might mean Italy will be one of the first to reopen its doors or that because of the magnitude of the crisis Italy dealt with means it may be more reluctant to let foreigners in… Economically challenged countries with large travel and tourism sectors, such as Greece and Spain, may be willing to move more quickly in re-opening than their other European counterparts.

Carry-on items will focus on health and safety

We may well see the relaxing of liquid carry-on restrictions in order to accommodate larger sizes of liquid hand sanitizers and disinfectant wipes/sprays - especially on long-haul flights. Along with travel “sanitizer packs”, it is safe to assume that for the near future we will travel with face masks. The development and widespread use of more attractive and multi-functional travel masks worn by Instagram influencers is bound to follow. Travelers may also choose to bring their own in-flight essentials (blankets, food, water) rather than opting for those provided traditionally provided by the airline.

More focus on Travel Protection and Compensation

Travel protection/travel insurance will be requested more frequently. While travel protection doesn’t cover you for many things, including the outbreak of a pandemic, it can provide assistance if you are unable to travel or travel is interrupted for covered medical reasons. Cancel for Any Reason policies, if still offered, will likely be much more expensive and more difficult to obtain. Future travel credits (FTCs) will be offered rather than refunds if travel is cancelled.

Cars and Trains before Planes

Domestic travel will recover first and for most countries that means driving or taking a train. Both methods of travel are less crowded than planes and offer more flexibility in terms of booking windows and routes. Travelers will opt for destinations that are easily accessible by these methods. Once travelers are flying again, airlines will be focusing on health as well as safety i.e. air filtration systems. Some have already started emailing customers about their current systems in a bid to stop people canceling.

IN SUMMARY

I believe we will start traveling again in the near future. Where we travel will be different. How we travel will be different. But WHY we travel will remain constant. Being exposed to new places, peoples and cultures widens our view of the world. It changes us physically and psychologically. While some of us travel to lose ourselves, others travel to find themselves. We travel to relax. We travel to explore and discover. We travel to learn. We learn that despite all our differences we have much in common and travel makes us appreciate what we have that much more. So for now we’ll stay safe and stay home and “stay-dream” about our next adventures until we can travel once again.