COVID-19 October Update
“Round the corner,” in terms of travel anyway, is looking like 2021.
I recently went back and looked at the COVID-19 travel guidance I wrote back in April and fortunately or unfortunately, it seems to have aged well. While I had hoped we would be further along in reducing the spread of COVID-19 by year end, the fall has brought a resurgence in increased cases and deaths from COVID-19 around the world. Too many people are still not taking COVID precautions seriously enough, either because they’re suffering from “pandemic fatigue” or don’t trust the guidance of scientists and health experts. Travel—while not following widely accepted health rules—is still seen as a major contributor to the spread of COVID-19.
Due to the high case numbers in the US and perceived lack of improvement in containing the virus, Americans face more restrictions than citizens of most other nations. Those of us who choose to travel now need to ensure we are not further contributing to the spread of COVID-19, which is difficult to do given the limitations in the accuracy of testing and how easily the virus is transmitted. Pre-travel testing, social distancing, washing hands and mask wearing continue to be encouraged as the best practices for reducing virus transmission.
Travel IS possible right now, as long as you take the right precautions and are willing to make modifications to your vacation. As of today more than 50 countries are open to U.S. travelers with a wide mix of pre-entry requirements ranging from none to proof of a negative COVID test taken between 48 hours and 7 days prior to travel to mandatory quarantine periods averaging 14 days. Airlines, hotels and tour operators have vastly improved cancellation policies giving travelers more flexibility. Airlines have eliminated most change fees. Hotels are extending their cancellation periods, allowing date changes with fewer penalties and offering enhanced points for stays. US passport renewal services have also restarted (albeit with delays).
The great outdoors has never been greater. Since the coronavirus spreads via person to person contact it’s best to consider a trip where you will be around as few people as possible. Many travelers are opting for the outdoors. Think beach destinations, or ski vacations or vacations focused around outdoor activities such as dog-sledding, snow shoeing (northern destinations) or hiking, golf or cycling trips (southern destinations).
Minimize your travel risk. A recent study indicated that traveling by plane may be relatively low risk for contracting the virus due to top of the line air filtration systems and the airline implemented mask policies. It is not risk-free - time spent at the airport before and after your flight also impacts the likelihood of exposure. If you can drive your own vehicle, even better, but keep in mind you will be in contact with frequently used/high touch areas at gas stations and rest stops. In terms of accommodations a vacation rental in a destination with low case counts is ideal. If staying at a hotel, check their cancellation and health and social distancing policies. Ask about enhanced cleaning procedures and occupancy rates.
The travel industry is actively looking for solutions to increase the safety of travel and reduce confusion over restrictions and rules between countries and there has been progress. In addition to implementing mask policies and spacing out seating, some airlines have begun experimenting with pre-flight COVID tests that provide results in 15 minutes. United is currently piloting this program on flights to Hawaii. Some countries have implemented regional travel corridors allowing tourists from “low risk” countries to travel between regions/countries without quarantine restrictions. Such corridors exist between New Zealand and Australia and in the UK and are being examined for the popular travel route between New York and London in time for the holidays. The first transatlantic trial of a new app that standardizes a digital format for COVID-19 test results (rather than various paper results) took place on a recent flight from London to Newark and the team is planning on quick expansion.
Signs are pointing to a strong pick up in travel in 2021. Travel will fall into two main categories:
1) “Replacement Travel” - those travelers who cancelled 2020 travel and rebooked for 2021. Many travel vouchers and certificates have a 12 - 18 month expiration period so there will be a rush to redeem these by travelers looking for a “redo.”
2) “Make-up Travel” - those travelers who have been “stuck indoors” for the majority of 2020 and feel they are owed a vacation. These travelers just want to go somewhere. Anywhere. They will be looking at far flung destinations where they can relax and explore in a new environment.
ALL of these travelers will be looking to book flights on airlines with reduced destinations and schedules, hotels with updated occupancy requirements, cruises and tours with smaller groups and possibly more restrictions.
IN SUMMARY
Don’t wait to make plans. If you have a destination in mind, now is the time to start planning. There will be a lot of pent up demand for travel and the supply will take some time to catch back up. There may be some good deals in the last quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, but by spring of 2021 I predict prices will be higher, availability will be lower and those who started planning early will benefit.
As always, if you are considering international travel it is best to consult the US state department and CDC websites for the latest country updates.